Bay Area Transit Cuts Could More Than Double Congestion Delays: The data behind the push to pass Prop RTM and Prop H

A new report from the San Francisco Bay Area Planning and Urban Research Association (SPUR) forecasts dramatic impacts on traffic, air quality, transportation costs, and more if a funding shortfall forces transit agencies like BART, Caltrain, Muni, and AC Transit to make service cuts.

The report, published in partnership with Jacobs, leverages StreetLight’s Origin-Destination data and other data sources to understand how service cuts could impact Bay Area travelers — whether they use transit or not.

Transit agencies across the country are facing funding shortfalls due to a significant dip in per-person ridership trends post-pandemic. For many transit agencies, this drop in fare revenue is exacerbated by policy changes, resulting in markedly smaller budgets for transit agencies.

The Bay Area is no exception; facing the prospect of sharply reduced funding, regional agencies have noted they may need to:

• Close stations – A third or more of all transit stations could be decommissioned
• Eliminate weekend service
• Close earlier – Weekday stops after 9 p.m. could be discontinued
• Reduce frequency – Stop frequency may be halved (or worse) on many routes (e.g. from every 15 to every 30 minutes)
• Remove routes – Entire routes could be discontinued, including hilltop and neighborhood routes

The analysis suggests dire consequences could ensue if transit services are cut:

• Peak-hour traffic delays on the Bay Bridge could more than double, increasing from 30 minutes to 1 hour and 13 minutes during PM rush hour.
• Other major corridors like I-580, I-680, and US-101 could also see huge surges in traffic congestion, often doubling current delays, or worse.
• 498 million additional vehicle miles traveled (VMT) annually across the region may produce another 184,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide per year.
• Transit riders who shift to driving could pay an additional $3,280 per year in transportation expenses.

Overall, Bay Area residents could expect to drive farther, more often, and with longer traffic delays along the way if transit agencies are forced to reduce service.

The report argues that passing two transit measures on the 2026 midterm ballot is critical to avoiding these outcomes: The Regional Transit Measure (Proposition RTM) on Bay Area ballots and the Stronger Muni for All Measure (Proposition H) on the San Francisco ballot. Each measure aims to secure funding for transit services through tax dollars.